Kenyans were right to be concerned about the prospects of a slowing economy as election campaigns intensified in the run-up to the August 2022 elections. Kenya’s economic growth slowed to 5.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, down from 9.3% in the same period in 2022, a predictable trend observed in previous electoral cycles.
An analysis of Kenya’s economic cycles and their relation to electoral cycles and elective politics shows that no matter the political mood, the Kenyan economy has always pivoted towards a dip as the election nears.
In the last 23 years, there have been five peak years, with 2001 registering 3.78 per cent growth, which, though still fairly low, was a leap from the 1999 shrinkage, and the minimal bump of 0.60 per cent experienced in the base year 2000. Kenya’s GDP growth in the years 2002, 2008, 2013 and 2017 declined by 0.8 per cent, 0.97 per cent and 0.17 per cent from 3.78 per cent in 2001, 6.85 per cent in 2007 and 4.57 per cent in 2012, respectively.
Surprisingly, the 2002 electoral year experienced slower growth despite the political euphoria undergirding the end of Moi-era economics and the rise of the NARC coalition into power. There are, the economy grew year-on-year from 2003 until 2007 thanks to the expansion of credit, low government debt, and the growth of the banking sector, acceleration of the telecoms sector, spike in motorbikes usage, and the jump in higher education enrollment.
“We were happy and hoped that the momentum will last at least 30 years,” says Wafula Wanyonyi a teacher in Ukunda at the coast. “Corruption went down, even civilians were arresting state officers who dared to ask for bribes,” he adds.
However, the 2007 election skirmishes spiralled the economy downwards, with an estimated loss of KSh300 billion lost to carnage and arson, as well as internal displacement, and loss of revenue from tourism. Available data shows that it takes an average of 26 months to recover from the slump in the economy occasioned by the jitters of an election year.
Economic trajectory during election years
Luckily, the build-up to the 2010 referendum, including campaign financing to shore up support for the referendum, infused cash into the political economy and bumped up growth to 8.06 per cent. The referendum was part of the proposed solutions by the 2008 Koffi Anan-led Kenya National and Dialogue and Reconciliation (KNDR) to analyze and mitigate the mistakes that led to the 2007 post-election violence.
The subsequent economic bump in 2014, although three percentage points lower than the 2010 high, came against the backdrop of the hope of the full realization of the benefits of the 2010 constitution. This hope was mostly pegged on devolution that disbursed funds to the newly devolved units, as well as judicial reforms.
Interestingly, the highest economic growth years preceding or coinciding with election years since the year 2000 average 5.64 per cent in GDP growth; 3.78 per cent in 2001, 6.85 per cent in 2007, 8.06 per cent in 2010, 3.80 per cent in 2013 and 7.52 per cent in 2021.
Highest Growth– The economy recorded a 0.32% growth, from 3.8 per cent in 2013 electoral year to 5.02 per cent achieved in 2014. It further achieved a 6.85 per cent growth in the run-up to the 2007 elections. Comparatively, it scored 7.52 per cent economic growth in 2021, with a projected 5.8 per cent ahead of the 2022 electoral year on the backdrop of the highly contested year.
The Lowest Growth- Curiously, since 2000 the country has had four years of suppressed growth including the year 2000 which recorded a 0.60 per cent growth, 2002 at 0.55 per cent, 2008 at 0.23 per cent, and 2020 at -0.2.5 per cent growth. The four lowest growth years between 2000-2022 therefore averaged at 0.28%.
Cost per voter
The available data shows that there is a marked 60 per cent chance of a dip in economic growth in each electoral year, during the last 33 years of the multi-party era. Meanwhile, the cost of elections per voter has been on an upward trajectory even when adjusted for inflation.
In 2007, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK)-the precursor to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) recorded a 9,877,028 voter turnout on a KSh6 billion budget averaged at KSh. 605 per voter.
In 2013, IEBC commissioners led by IEBC chair Issack Hassan and chief electoral officer James Oswago presented a KSh31.5 billion budget, which was nearly SKh10 billion lower than the KSh41.4 billion earlier presented to the Parliamentary Committee on Justice and Legal Affairs. The KSh31.5 billion was to cater for a total voter count of 12,330,028, bringing the cost per voter to KSh2,555 per voter.
In 2017, the total election expenditure for the August election was KSh50 billion to fund the IEBC and related agencies. The presidential results were nullified by the Supreme Court and a repeat election was slated for the 26th of October. The poll agency requested for KSh12.2 billion for the repeat elections but the Treasury settled for KSh10 billion, bringing the total cost of the 2017 elections to KSh60 billion.
2022: The IEBC needed KSh40.917 billion to adequately conduct the 2022 general election. Through a statement on August 9, Chairman Wafula Chebukati revealed that the commission had requested for a further KSh588 million for acquiring items related to COVID-19 prevention protocols.
The new funding, announced by National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Ukur Yattani while detailing his budget highlights and revenue-raising measures for the 2022/23 financial year, brought the total allocation for the polls to KSh44.6 billion. Kenya’s 2022 general election became one of the most expensive in the world, with the poll exercise involving 22,120,258 registered voters, representing approximately KSh. 2,000 per voter.
“The servers should be opened to verify that there was no rigging or malpractice by IEBC.” Says Victor Mwachofi, a resident of Bombolulu estate in Mombasa County. This is despite elaborate access and subsequent submissions by the poll body’s lawyers to the Supreme Court during the August 2022 appeal by Azimio La Umoja flagbearer Raila Odinga.
The Supreme Court ruling on the August 2022 elections upheld the poll body’s verdict and still made calls for specific reforms to enhance the confidence of Kenyan voters towards the electoral body.
‘We’ll only experience higher economic growth and lower cost per voter if all the respective players in our electoral cycle exercise trust and respect for the rule of law, and full confidence in the independent state agencies in the run-up to elections.’ insists Kevin Owino, a Kisumu-based trader.